Xiao Lu

Xiao Lu

Assistant Professor

Peking Univerisity


My research centers on developing both theoretical and statistical models for analyzing heterogeneous and dynamic political process under various contexts, with a special focus on party competition, legislative decision making, and political representation and accountability of coalition governance in European countries. My research unites two strands of significant political science inquiry: the development of game theoretical models to explain dynamic strategic decisions of political actors, and the refinement of quantitative (in particular quantile models, Bayesian methods and a combination of the two) and experimental methods to better test empirical hypotheses derived from theoretical models.

  • European Politics
  • Political Methodology
  • Party Politics
  • Legislative Politics
  • Coalition Politics
  • PhD in Political Science, 2021

    University of Mannheim

  • MA in Political Science, 2017

    University of Mannheim

  • BA in International Liberal Studies, 2015

    Waseda University

  • LLB in International Politics, 2015

    Peking University


Assistant Professor
Sep 2022 – Present Beijing
Director of Data and Methodology
Sep 2022 – Present Beijing
Postdoc Researcher
Mar 2021 – Jul 2022 Mannheim
Doctoral Researcher
Jul 2017 – Mar 2021 Mannheim


  • 2022-2024 BA Leverhulme Small Grant, Quality of Legislation as a Strategic Component in Legislative Decision-making (with Moritz Osnabrügge and Matia Vannoni). Grant amount: £9,970.

Invited Talks & Conference Presentations

Paper Presentation

  • Conditional Timing in Coalition Policymaking. ECPR General Conference, 2023.

  • Analyzing Political Cycles as Heterogeneous Circular Data of Timing. PolMeth Europe, 2022.

  • Legislative Decision Making and Law Compliance in the EU(with Thomas König). 79th Annual MPSA Conference, 2022.

  • Beyond the Average: Empirical Hypothesis Testing with Heterogeneous Effects across the Distribution of the Outcomes. 78th Annual MPSA Conference, 2021.

  • Helping or Sanctioning? Heterogeneous Effects in the Strategic Analysis of International Compliance(with Thomas König). 11th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, 2021.

  • How to Identify Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in Strategic Sequential Choices? Player Heterogeneity and Quantile Models(with Thomas König). PolMeth Europe, 2021.

  • Beyond the Average: Hypothesis Testing with Quantile Mixture”. ECPR General Conference, 2020, Innsbruck, Austria. (Virtual presentation due to Covid-19.)

  • Should I Stay or Should I Go? The British Membership Game between Prime Ministers, the Rank-and-File, and the Voters (with Thomas König). EPSA Annual conference, 2020, Prague, Czech. (One of the 20 papers in the track accepted for virtual presentation).

  • Divided Parties, Heterogeneous Voters and Electoral Choice (with Felix Olsowski). 77th Annual MPSA Conference, 2019, Chicago, USA.

  • Discrete Choice Data with Unobserved Heterogeneity: A Conditional Binary Quantile Model. 77th Annual MPSA Conference, 2019, Chicago, USA.

  • Player Heterogeneity and Equilibrium Multiplicity: Local Identification Using a Bayesian Strategic Quantile Model(with Thomas König). Joint Annual Conference of the GPSA Methods of Political Science Section and the SPSA Empirical Methodology Working Group, 2019, Basel, Switzerland.

Poster Presentation

  • Discrete Choice Data with Unobserved Heterogeneity: A Conditional Binary Quantile Model. 6th Asian Political Methodology Meeting and Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society for Quantitative Political Science, 2019, Kyoto, Japan.

Manuscript Referee Service

  • American Political Science Review

  • American Journal of Political Science

  • Political Analysis

  • European Union Politics

  • Statistical Modelling


  • “Quantitative Methods in International Relations”, University of Mannheim

  • “Introduction to International Relations: Competing Parties and International Outcomes”, University of Mannheim

  • “Introduction to European Union Politics”, Peking University

  • “Comparative Politics”, Peking University